AMAZING NEWS: FANDOM WINS THE HUGO AWARDS!

Comparing my picks to actual results – and some commentary.

I am very well pleased with the 2015 Hugo Award results.

Very happy.

But not because some people lost.  Rather, because FANDOM won.

Here are my picks and the actual results side by side;  where I got things wrong, the text is italicized.  Some thoughts are below.

[two]
MY PICKS/PREDICTIONS
Best Novel
ANCILLARY SWORD!
Best Novella
NO AWARD!
Best Novelette
NO AWARD!
Best Short Story
NO AWARD!
Best Related Work
NO AWARD!
Best Graphic Story
MS. MARVEL VOLUME 1
Best Dramatic Presentation Long Form
CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE WINTER SOLDIER*
Best Dramatic Presentation Short Form
ORPHAN BLACK
Best Editor Short Form
NO AWARD!
Best Editor Long Form
NO AWARD!
Best Professional Artist
JULIE DILLON
Best Semiprozine
LIGHTSPEED MAGAZINE
Best Fanzine
JOURNEY PLANET
Best Fancast
GALACTIC SUBURBIA PODCAST
Best Fan Writer
LAURA J. MIXON
Best Fan Artist
STEVE STILES
John W. Campbell Best New Writer
WESLEY CHU!

[/two] [two_last]
ACTUAL RESULTS
Best Novel
The Three Body Problem
Best Novella
No Award
Best Novelette
The Day the World Turned Upside Down
Best Short Story
No Award
Best Related Work
No Award
Best Graphic Story
Ms. Marvel Volume 1
Best Dramatic Presentation, Long Form
Guardians of the Galaxy
Best Dramatic Presentation, Short Form
Orphan Black
Best Editor, Short Form
No Award
Best Editor, Long Form
No Award
Best Professional Artist
Julie Dillon
Best Semiprozine
Lightspeed Magazine
Best Fanzine
Journey Planet
Best Fancast
Galactic Suburbia Podcast
Best Fan Writer
Laura J. Mixon
Best Fan Artist
Elizabeth Leggett
John W. Campbell Award for Best New Writer
Wesley Chu[/two_last]

I thought I did better last night, based on memory.  Now that I can see things side by side, I see I missed on 4 of the 17 categories.  Or, to look at it the other way, I was correct 76.47 percent of the time.

Additionally, I strongly suspected that the desire to award Guardians of the Galaxy the win was so strong that this would be the one category that those voting against the slates would exempt.  I picked (and voted for) a non-slate entry because that’s what I said I would do, but I also stated that I expected GotG to win (and I’m happy – mostly – that it did.  Of course, as I also predicted, the puppies are already braying about how that demonstrates a failure of the anti-slate voting – “Some SJWs are already trying to claim that they only rejected Toni Weisskopf because she was “part of a slate”, but the fact that they had no problem voting for Guardians of the Galaxy, which was on the same slate, demonstrates very clearly that they have no such principle, it’s all about the politics for them.” (our favorite rabid puppy).

Of course that conveniently ignores reality, but why should that be any different than what we’ve seen and been reading since April.

Chaos Horizon has some preliminary analysis of the numbers.  I’m in general agreement with those conclusions;  there were approximately 1,000 puppy-related voters, split roughly evenly between Rabids and Sads and approximately 2500 to 3000 Trufans with approximately 1500 unassignable.

Additionally, if one looks at the finishing places for the puppy-nominated/slated works in relation to No Award, you can’t come to any conclusion other than this:

The 2015 Hugo Award results send a CLEAR message to all that campaigning – especially for personal gain or in aide of some non-related political views – is not an acceptable strategy.

So how did I get somewhere between 76 and 82% of my picks correct, while those living in the puppy bubble deluded themselves into believing that they’d capture at least a couple of clear wins?

I know fandom and the puppies don’t.  It’s as simple as that.  I’ve been watching fandom for 42 years now.  Done a lot of research, a lot of reading and a lot of figuring out what voices seem to have a clue and which ones don’t.  I long suspected that the majority (at least 2/3rds) of the supporting memberships this year were fans offended by the puppy’s affront to our community (internet volume was more than enough to reach that conclusion) that they decided to take action.

The mistake in assessment made by the puppy factions was this:  they see fandom’s chaotic, seemingly confused and contentious nature as a weakness.  But what they don’t see, because they have little to no real experience with it, is that one of fandom’s greatest strengths is its ability to come together when the issue(s) are really important.  I’ve seen it happen often enough in the past to know that this characteristic of fandom can be relied upon.

So what does this mean for 2016?

From the rhetoric on display not two seconds in to the award ceremony, the Puppy factions are going to double down.  We don’t yet know what Sunday’s Business Meeting will reveal regarding voting rule changes, but, except in one respect today’s vote won’t change anything for 2016.

That one thing would be an argument against passing the resolutions for EPH and 4/6 voting changes, that argument suggesting that since the forces for truth, justice and the international fan way prevailed this year, there is no need to make changes to the voting system to combat slates.

Personally, I think the better strategy would be to pass both resolutions in order to get the clock started on implementing one or the other of them so that IF they are needed after next year, we don’t have to wait until 2018 to see them go into effect.

There’s no doubt in my mind that the Puppy’s will be doubling down.  They’re already stating that fandom has invoked the “nuclear option” in regards to the award and we’re already hearing threats that the puppies intend to insure that the categories receiving No Award this year will see the same next year.

The only real vulnerability I see here is those 2500 to 3000 new member/voters getting tired following a full year of unceasing puppy nonsense.  If those who voted in defense of the fannish community can keep their interest up between now and MidAmericon II, I think we’ll have managed to get past this whole thing.  If not – expect strongly mixed results, as there is no doubt in my mind that the puppies have now set their sites on recruiting another 2500 voters.

Fandom is to be congratulated!  It stepped up to the plate and hit a home run – in the bottom of the ninth, with two outs and two strikes on the board – but this wasn’t a single game.  It’s a series.  Fandom has got to stay on its guard for one more year.

For those of you who want the detail of the other finishing places:

Best Novel (5653 final ballots, 1827 nominating ballots, 587 entries, range 212-387)

  • The Three Body Problem, Cixin Liu, Ken Liu translator (Tor Books)
  • The Goblin Emperor, Katherine Addison (Sarah Monette) (Tor Books)
  • Ancillary Sword, Ann Leckie (Orbit US/Orbit UK)
  • No Award
  • Skin Game, Jim Butcher (Orbit UK/Roc Books)
  • The Dark Between the Stars, Kevin J. Anderson (Tor Books)

Note: The Three-Body Problem was originally published in Chinese in 2008. The 2014 publication by Tor was the first English-language version, and therefore it is again eligible for the Hugos, according to section 3.4.1 of the WSFS Constitution.

Best Novella (5337 final ballots, 1083 nominating ballots, 201 entries, range 145-338)

  • No Award
  • “Flow”, Arlan Andrews, Sr. (Analog, 11-2014)
  • Big Boys Don’t Cry, Tom Kratman (Castalia House)
  • One Bright Star to Guide Them, John C. Wright (Castalia House)
  • “The Plural of Helen of Troy”, John C. Wright (City Beyond Time: Tales of the Fall of Metachronopolis, Castalia House)
  • “Pale Realms of Shade”, John C. Wright (The Book of Feasts & Seasons, Castalia House)

Note: Both Big Boys Don’t Cry and One Bright Star to Guide Them were previously published in much shorter versions, and were significantly expanded to novella-length in their 2014 publication. Following previous precedents, for the purposes of the 2015 Hugos they are designated as new works.

Best Novelette (5104 final ballots, 1031 nominating ballots, 314 entries, (72-267)

  • “The Day the World Turned Upside Down”, Thomas Olde Heuvelt, Lia Belt translator (Lightspeed, 04-2014)
  • No Award
  • “The Triple Sun: A Golden Age Tale”, Rajnar Vajra (Analog, 07/08-2014)
  • “Ashes to Ashes, Dust to Dust, Earth to Alluvium”, Gray Rinehart (Orson Scott Card’s InterGalactic Medicine Show, 05-2014)
  • “The Journeyman: In the Stone House”, Michael F. Flynn (Analog, 06-2014)
  • “Championship B’tok”, Edward M. Lerner (Analog, 09-2014)

Best Short Story (5267 final ballots, 1174 nominating ballots, 728 entries, range 132-226)

  • No Award
  • “Totaled”, Kary English (Galaxy’s Edge Magazine, 07-2014)
  • “A Single Samurai”, Steven Diamond (The Baen Big Book of Monsters, Baen Books)
  • “Turncoat”, Steve Rzasa (Riding the Red Horse, Castalia House)
  • “On A Spiritual Plain”, Lou Antonelli (Sci Phi Journal #2, 11-2014)
  • “The Parliament of Beasts and Birds”, John C. Wright (The Book of Feasts & Seasons, Castalia House)

Best Related Work (4901 final ballots, 1150 nominating ballots, 346 entries, range 206-273)

  • No Award
  • “The Hot Equations: Thermodynamics and Military SF”, Ken Burnside (Riding the Red Horse, Castalia House)
  • “Why Science is Never Settled”, Tedd Roberts (Baen.com)
  • Transhuman and Subhuman: Essays on Science Fiction and Awful Truth, John C. Wright (Castalia House)
  • Letters from Gardner, Lou Antonelli (The Merry Blacksmith Press)
  • Wisdom from My Internet, Michael Z. Williamson (Patriarchy Press)

Best Graphic Story (4412 final ballots, 785 nominating ballots, 325 entries, range 60-201)

  • Ms. Marvel Volume 1: No Normal, written by G. Willow Wilson, illustrated by Adrian Alphona and Jake Wyatt, (Marvel Comics)
  • Saga Volume 3, written by Brian K. Vaughan, illustrated by Fiona Staples (Image Comics))
  • Rat Queens Volume 1: Sass and Sorcery, written by Kurtis J. Weibe, art by Roc Upchurch (Image Comics)
  • Sex Criminals Volume 1: One Weird Trick, written by Matt Fraction, art by Chip Zdarsky (Image Comics)
  • No Award
  • The Zombie Nation Book #2: Reduce Reuse Reanimate, Carter Reid (The Zombie Nation)

Best Dramatic Presentation, Long Form (5240 final ballots, 1285 nominating ballots, 189 entries, range 204-769)

  • Guardians of the Galaxy, written by James Gunn and Nicole Perlman, directed by James Gunn (Marvel Studios, Moving Picture Company)
  • Captain America: The Winter Soldier, screenplay by Christopher Markus & Stephen McFeely, concept and story by Ed Brubaker, directed by Anthony Russo and Joe Russo (Marvel Entertainment, Perception, Sony Pictures Imageworks)
  • Edge of Tomorrow, screenplay by Christopher McQuarrie, Jez Butterworth, and John-Henry Butterworth, directed by Doug Liman (Village Roadshow, RatPac-Dune Entertainment, 3 Arts Entertainment; Viz Productions)
  • Interstellar, screenplay by Jonathan Nolan and Christopher Nolan, directed by Christopher Nolan (Paramount Pictures, Warner Bros. Pictures, Legendary Pictures, Lynda Obst Productions, Syncopy)
  • The Lego Movie, written by Phil Lord & Christopher Miller, story by Dan Hageman, Kevin Hageman, Phil Lord & Christopher Miller, directed by Phil Lord & Christopher Miller (Warner Bros. Pictures, Village Roadshow Pictures, RatPac-Dune Entertainment, LEGO System A/S, Vertigo Entertainment, Lin Pictures, Warner Bros. Animation (as Warner Animation Group))

Best Dramatic Presentation, Short Form (4705 final ballots, 938 nominating ballots, 470 entries, range 71-170)

  • Orphan Black: “By Means Which Have Never Yet Been Tried”, ” written by Graham Manson, directed by John Fawcett (Temple Street Productions, Space/BBC America)
  • Doctor Who: “Listen”, written by Steven Moffat, directed by Douglas Mackinnon (BBC Television)
  • Game of Thrones: “The Mountain and the Viper”, written by David Benioff & D. B. Weiss, directed by Alex Graves ((HBO Entertainment in association with Bighead, Littlehead; Television 360; Startling Television and Generator Productions)
  • The Flash: “Pilot”, teleplay by Andrew Kreisberg & Geoff Johns, story by Greg Berlanti, Andrew Kreisberg & Geoff Johns, directed by David Nutter (The CW) (Berlanti Productions, DC Entertainment, Warner Bros. Television)
  • Grimm: “Once We Were Gods”, written by Alan DiFiore, directed by Steven DePaul (NBC) (GK Productions, Hazy Mills Productions, Universal TV)

 

Best Editor, Short Form (4850 final ballots, 870 nominating ballots, 187 entries, range 162-279)

      • No Award
      • Mike Resnick
      • Jennifer Brozek
      • Bryan Thomas Schmidt
      • Vox Day

Edmund R. Schubert

(Withdrew after ballot finalized)

Best Editor, Long Form (4907 final ballots, 712 nominating ballots, 124 entries, range 166-368)

  • No Award
  • Toni Weisskopf
  • Sheila Gilbert
  • Anne Sowards
  • Jim Minz
  • Vox Day

Best Professional Artist (4354 final ballots, 753 nominating ballots, 300 entries, range 118-188)

  • Julie Dillon
  • No Award
  • Kirk DouPonce
  • Alan Pollack
  • Nick Greenwood
  • Carter Reid

Best Semiprozine (

 

Best Semiprozine (3880 final ballots, 660 nominating ballots, 100 entries, range 94-229)

  • Lightspeed Magazine, edited by John Joseph Adams, Stefan Rudnicki, Rich Horton, Wendy N. Wagner, and Christie Yant
  • Strange Horizons, Niall Harrison, editor-in-chief
  • Beneath Ceaseless Skies, edited by Scott H. Andrews
  • No Award
  • Abyss & Apex, Wendy Delmater editor and publisher
  • Andromeda Spaceways In-Flight Magazine, Andromeda Spaceways Publishing Association Incorporated, 2014 editors David Kernot and Sue Bursztynski

Best Fanzine (3818 final ballots, 576 nominating ballots, 162 entries, range 68-208)

  • Journey Planet, edited by James Bacon, Christopher J Garcia, Colin Harris, Alissa McKersie, and Helen J. Montgomery
  • No Award
  • Black Gate, edited by John O’Neill (Withdrew after ballot finalized)
  • Tangent SF Online, edited by Dave Truesdale
  • Elitist Book Reviews, edited by Steven Diamond
  • The Revenge of Hump Day, edited by Tim Bolgeo

Best Fancast (3884 final ballots, 668 nominating ballots, 162 entries, range 69-179)

  • Galactic Suburbia Podcast, Alisa Krasnostein, Alexandra Pierce, Tansy Rayner Roberts (Presenters) and Andrew Finch (Producer)
  • Tea and Jeopardy, Emma Newman and Peter Newman
  • No Award
  • The Sci Phi Show, Jason Rennie
  • Adventures in SciFi Publishing, Brent Bower (Executive Producer), Kristi Charish, Timothy C. Ward & Moses Siregar III (Co-Hosts, Interviewers and Producers)
  • Dungeon Crawlers Radio, Daniel Swenson (Producer/Host), Travis Alexander & Scott Tomlin (Hosts), Dale Newton (Host/Tech), Damien Swenson (Audio/Video Tech)

Best Fan Writer (3884 final ballots, 777 nominating ballots, 265 entries, range 129-201)

  • Laura J. Mixon
  • No Award
  • Jeffro Johnson
  • Dave Freer
  • Amanda S. Green
  • Cedar Sanderson

Best Fan Artist (3476 final ballots, 296 nominating ballots, 198 entries, range 23-48)

  • Elizabeth Leggett
  • Spring Schoenhuth
  • Ninni Aalto
  • Steve Stiles
  • Brad W. Foster

The John W. Campbell Award for Best New Writer (4338 final ballots, 851 nominating ballots, 220 entries, range 106-229)
Award for the best new professional science fiction or fantasy writer of 2013 or 2014, sponsored by Dell Magazines. (Not a Hugo Award, but administered along with the Hugo Awards.)

  • Wesley Chu*
  • No Award
  • Kary English*
  • Eric S. Raymond
  • Jason Cordova
  • Rolf Nelson

*Finalists in their 2nd year of eligibility.

Puppy Slate Nominees in red

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